Research Roundup: COVID-19 Studies
January/February 2025 | Volume 24 Number 1
Courtesy of NIAIDMicroscopic view of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19 illness.
Impact of COVID-19 on RSV dynamics
During the COVID-19 pandemic, measures like social distancing and mask-wearing reduced the spread of many viruses, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which primarily affects infants and the elderly. However, when these measures were lifted, RSV cases surged, particularly in the winter of 2022-2023. RSV has two subtypes, A and B, and while both can cause severe illness, RSV-A tends to spread faster and cause more serious infections. Researchers used models to predict that RSV-A would dominate in the post-pandemic period, as many people had been unexposed during the pandemic. Data from around the world supported this, showing that RSV-A became more common after COVID-19 restrictions ended. This shift is important as new vaccines and treatments for RSV are being developed and introduced. Understanding these changes in RSV patterns is key to assessing effectiveness of interventions and preparing for future outbreaks. Fogarty’s Cécile Viboud, PhD, Nidia S. Trovão, PhD, and Samantha Bents contributed to this report.
Understanding how antibodies protect against COVID-19 variants
Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are a vital component of the immune defense against infectious pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2. While nAbs are known to provide protection against COVID-19, their role in preventing infection, particularly with emerging variants, remains less well understood. Researchers, including lead author Kaiyuan Sun, PhD, and Cécile Viboud, PhD, both of Fogarty, examined the role of nAbs in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa.The study found that nAbs from prior infections contributed approximately 37% of the protection against reinfection during the Delta wave, though this protection waned over time. In contrast, the Omicron variant largely evaded neutralization, with Omicron-specific nAbs accounting for only 11% of the observed protection. These findings highlight the variability in antibodies protective potency across variants and suggest that boosting nAbs specific to circulating variants could help restore immunity lost due to SARS-CoV-2’s antigenic evolution. However, nAbs alone don’t explain all the protection; measuring other immune responses, such as T cell response (measured both in the serum and nasal mucosa) may be required to fully understand immune protection against SARS-CoV-2.
How COVID-19 impacted cancer mortality in the US
During the COVID-19 pandemic, cancer was considered a risk factor for increased mortality, yet surprisingly, cancer deaths did not rise substantially during the first year of the pandemic. Lead Author Chelsea Hansen, Cécile Viboud, PhD, both of Fogarty, and Lone Simonsen, PhD, explored the impact of COVID-19 on cancer-related deaths in the U.S. by reviewing death certificates from different states during 2020. They estimated that cancer-related deaths remained within historical levels, with only a small increase in overall cancer mortality (about 3%), adding roughly 13,600 extra deaths. They compared this to deaths from diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease, which rose by 37% and 19%, respectively. Notably, the increase in deaths was higher for cancers with better survival rates, like breast, colorectal, and hematological cancers, while cancers with lower survival rates, like pancreatic and lung cancers, showed minimal increases in mortality. The study found that the lack of excess mortality for cancer was likely explained by cancer’s own high death risk which overshadowed any additional risk posed by COVID-19.
Epidemics special issue examines real-time COVID-19 modeling efforts
A special issue of Epidemics, co-edited by Fogarty’s Cécile Viboud, PhD, highlights some of the learnings from the years and efforts to create real-time models to help guide decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. Among these endeavors, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) was created to coordinate modeling efforts and provide evidence for policies in the U.S. Since December 2020, the SMH has produced multiple rounds of COVID-19 projections, as well as projections for other diseases like influenza and RSV. The Hub brought together 30 models and made significant advances in multi-model forecasting and collaboration. The first 6 papers describe the Hub itself, its impacts, some of the governing science behind it and the advances made. The remaining articles detail the individual models of nine teams that contributed to SMH; these reports provide detailed descriptions and analyses of the model structure, underlying assumptions, calibration techniques and model performance.
Lethal COVID-19 is associated with RAAS-induced inflammation
This study examines how COVID-19 can lead to lethal outcomes. The researchers, including Fogarty’s Nidia S. Trovão, PhD, found that SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing COVID-19) disrupts mitochondrial functions, causing a buildup of reactive oxygen species and activating immune responses, which can worsen disease severity. The virus also triggers an overactivation of certain signaling pathways, such as the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), leading to inflammation, blood clotting, and tissue damage, a process known as the "cytokine storm." Importantly, the study highlights the involvement of genes that regulate immune responses and mitochondrial activity, such as ZNFX1 and ZBP1. The study findings suggest that targeting mitochondrial dysfunction and specific immune pathways may help reduce COVID-19 severity and potentially alleviate symptoms in long COVID. However, further research is needed.Updated February 12, 2025
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