Research Roundup: Intro
January/February 2025 | Volume 24 Number 1
Courtesy of NASA Retired astronauts Mark and Scott Kelly, identical twin brothers, participated in the NASA Twins Study.
Fogarty scientists conduct original research in epidemiology and mathematical modeling of diseases, genomic evolution of pathogens, implementation science and population studies.
“The Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies has significantly advanced public health in the United States by developing cutting-edge modeling techniques that enhance preparedness and improve responses to pandemics and emerging health threats, directly benefiting the health and safety of Americans,” said David J. Spiro, PhD, the division’s director. “Fogarty researchers tackle a broad spectrum of global health challenges, from advancing influenza forecasting and HIV genomic surveillance to exploring innovative solutions for air pollution impacts, underscoring their pivotal role in addressing both domestic and international health issues.”
The following studies were published in peer-reviewed journals between June and December 2024.
Can astronauts’ health be protected by targeting microRNAs?
Space exploration presents challenges for human health, including exposure to radiation, altered gravity, and isolation, which can lead to serious issues like bone and muscle loss, cardiovascular diseases, and cognitive impairments. One area of research has focused on microRNAs, small molecules that regulate genes and are linked to various diseases. Studies have shown that certain microRNAs in astronauts’ bodies change in response to space conditions, particularly in the liver, muscles, and heart. A research team, including Fogarty’s Nidia S. Trovão, PhD, experimented on 3D microvessel cell cultures exposed to simulated deep space radiation both with and without antagonists to three specific microRNAs—miR-16-5p, miR-125b-5p, and let-7a-5p. These microRNAs are associated with immune function, stress responses, and mitochondrial health. By targeting these with antagomirs, scientists may be able to develop countermeasures to protect astronauts’ health during space missions, with potential benefits for improving medical treatments on Earth as well.
Reduced household air pollution has little effect on newborn length or head circumference
Around 3 billion people, mostly in low- and middle-income regions, rely on solid fuels like wood and coal for cooking, which leads to high levels of household air pollution. This exposure can negatively affect pregnancy outcomes, such as low birth weight and impaired fetal growth. In this study, the Household Air Pollution Intervention Network trial team compared head circumference and length at birth in households using traditional cookstoves, which use biomass fuels (wood, dung, or agricultural waste) versus households using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Pregnant women in India, Guatemala, Peru, and Rwanda were randomly assigned to either receive free LPG stoves and fuel or to continue with traditional stoves and fuels. The LPG stove intervention during pregnancy successfully reduced personal exposures to PM2.5, black carbon and carbon monoxide but had small or no effects on head circumference and length at birth. Fogarty’s Joshua Rosenthal, PhD, contributed to this study.
Exploring the origins and spread of an HIV subtype in China and Myanmar
In this study, Nidia S. Trovão, PhD, of Fogarty and co-author Xingguang Li investigate the early evolutionary and other dynamics of HIV-1 CRF08_BC in China and Myanmar using near-complete genome sequences from 28 samples collected between 1997 and 2013. The researchers found that HIV-1 CRF08_BC likely originated in Yunnan Province, China, among people who inject drugs and later spread to other areas, including Gansu Province and Myanmar. (Yunnan Province in southwest China is close to the heroin-producing Golden Triangle region.) The analysis also estimated that the virus emerged around 1989, evolving at a slower rate than previously thought. Challenges such as limited data and misreporting highlight the need for better data collection practices. Overall, the study stresses the importance of genomic surveillance to inform public health strategies aimed at controlling HIV-1 CRF08_BC transmission and preventing future outbreaks.
Framework for Effective Scenario Design in Epidemiology
Scenario modeling has become a key tool in many fields, including epidemiology, for making long-term projections and evaluating how different interventions might impact outcomes. This method involves projecting multiple scenarios at once to compare potential results and inform decision-making. The design of scenarios is crucial to their effectiveness. Senior Author Cécile Viboud, PhD, and her colleagues identify six fundamental purposes for scenario designs—decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, and value of information. The paper discusses how each purpose shapes the scenario structure and highlights the importance of considering multi-model projections. As a case study, the authors review the early rounds of COVID-19 scenario modeling in the U.S., offering insights into how scenario design could be improved in the future in epidemiological settings.
Updated February 12, 2025
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